Haydock thoughts…
Saturday 27th April
“Best horse in the race and a repeat of his York run in one of last season’s hottest nurseries is good enough to take this”.
Despite some smaller field sizes, quite an interesting betting day at Haydock and a few decent bets to be made.
2:10 Haydock
All races on the inner track on Saturday, which means, on heavy ground, there is no historical draw bias to factor in.
A competitive event, Cold Stare is the obvious one. He arrives on the back of a win last weekend so fitness is assured and he is at his best on soft ground.
Despite a 6 lb rise for his latest success, 74 is a mark he can still win off. It’s all there and pretty obvious and this is reflected in the price. 7/2 is about right, I’d not be surprised if he wins but I’m happy to walk past with no juice in that price.
Havana Rum looks a little overpriced at 16’s in a race where conditions will suit, BUT…
The one I want to be involved with and, as I type IMO incorrectly priced – HEARTRATE.
If you want to see a horse with a high knee action, watch one of his replays. Done? Ok, that action would suggest soft ground is a requirement for Heartrate to show his best, he hits the ground pretty hard.
Rewind…to the 14th Sept last year – Ffos Las.
Ignore the official going description – good!!! That’s nonsense, it was soft and that was the last time Heartrate had the chance to race on ground with some cut. It’s forecast heavy at Haydock on Saturday.
Since Ffos Las Heartrate he has raced mainly on the all-weather tracks, with a couple of respectable runs, I expect him to be back to near his best under Saturday’s conditions and a repeat of the Ffos Las run would be good enough to be very involved here.
I make him a 6/1 shot, plenty of 16’s about Friday evening so an obvious bet.
2:45 Haydock
All about GWEEDORE here.
I’ve priced him 7/2. Friday evening and plenty of 13/2 available.
His chance traces back to his York 3rd behind Montassib at the end of last season (previously covered here). Similar sentiments applied to his chances on Saturday.
Yes, it’s his seasonal debut….fitness and wellbeing are taken on trust. I feel that’s compensated for in the price of 13/2 and am happy to play.
Counterintuitive to back a second in the race in the face of a strong fancy?
I never have a problem backing more than one, back as many as you like…as long as you believe the price is value against however you gauge it.
So…I have half an eye on RHOSCOLYN. I think he is capable of winning off 98 and he’ll encounter his optimum conditions on Saturday.
Rhoscolyn ran last weekend, 5th of 5 might not sound that promising but, it was a better race than the Haydock race and should mean he is fit and ready to run near his best.
16’s with the books, just touching 20’s on Betfair with volume yet to fill up. Hopefully a bit better than 20 is coming but, I’ll be happy to stake at that price.
3:20 Haydock
Small stakes, but ACT OF VIOLENCE looks overpriced here.
Yes, you need to push past last weekend’s stuffing by the reopposing Shelbourne but, the evidence of the clock from his Catterick win last season gives Act Of Violence a much better chance than the current 16/1.
Take out last week’s run and he’d be near the head of the market. It happened, but Act Of Violence was considerably handled once beaten.
At the price and with a run under his belt, I’m happy to play hoping he returns to the Catterick level of performance.
4:28 Haydock
For a 5 runner race, this is a decent contest with 3 of the runners on very attractive handicap marks and another runner of some potential.
The 3…
Nellie Leylax, Von Baer & ARAGON CASTLE.
How I priced this (100% book)…
Aragon Castle 2/1
Nellie Laylax 11/4
Von Baer 10/3
Offer And Receive 13/2
Invincible Aura 22/1
So, while there are 3 horses I consider on winnable marks and therefore of interest, at the prices Aragon Castle is the one I want to be with. 4/1 available about what I make a 2’s chance.
The Nellie Leylax price vs chance I make about right, but I’ll watch the market. Above 3’s and he’d be of interest. Von Baer is currently priced 5/2 so I’m happy to let go.
Offer And Receive & Invincible Aura are available on 5/2 & 8/1 respectively so…of no interest.
Aragon Castle for me at 4/1. The best horse in the race and a repeat of his York run in one of last season’s hottest nurseries is good enough to take this.
5:00 Haydock
Nothing too complicated here, AMANCIO is the best horse in the race. Should be the favourite and is currently 3rd best in the betting.
4/1 looks more than fair, I can see Amancio going off nearer 2/1.
Like I said, best horse on show here, conditions to suit and having run at Windsor on Monday there are no doubts about fitness.