Queen’s Cup Day
Musselburgh thoughts…
2:25 Silver Arrow Handicap
Poet Master will be the popular choice. Lightly raced, progressive…he is probably going to prove a good bit better than he’s had the opportunity to show on the track so far.
There has been a lot to like in his 4 runs to date.
On his final start at Doncaster he took care of the opposition in good style. Noticeably pricking in his ears when hitting the front, he gave the impression that he could have given more if pushed.
Pricing up his chance is very difficult. He needs to step forward on the track evidence, It’s all potential and he’s likely to do so in due course…the unknown upside?
I’m happy to bypass at the current (Thursday pm) best price of 11/4 in favour of GWEEDORE.
Gweedore has won this race the past 2 years. The market knows this and it’s probably knocked a couple of points off his price. Fine…on a positive, it’s fairly likely this race has been a target and he will be revved up.
On his 3rd behind Montassib at York last season, he’s on a winning mark. That race was run in a very good time and the horse’s who finished close up are on winnable marks and worth looking out for.
Gweedore’s York effort can be marked up. I’ve heard a variety of opinions on the best side to be drawn at York. It’s low, with an exaggerated advantage when the ground rides soft.
Watch the race back…the field split in two before coming together in the final furlong. Gweedore beat his stand side group by 5 lengths plus, had he been drawn in the Montassib group, with a chance to race on the quicker ground, would he have finished closer to the winner? I’d say yes.
He’ll race prominent at Musselburgh, a draw in 3 is ideal for him to bounce and get a position before the bend and he’ll take some pegging back up the straight.
Currently a best priced 11/2, I have him around a 3/1, 7/2 chance so I can see him going off a fair bit shorter (it’ll depend on the strength of Poet Master).
Others worth a mention…
Abduction can win races off a mark of 89. He’s plenty of speed so this track promises to suit though the rain softened ground has probably gone against him. His best efforts have come at Ayr so maybe one to look out for there.
And then there’s Darkness, again there are races to be won off a mark of 90 though I suspect he won’t be able to cope with Gweedore on Saturday.
He’s an each way alternative at around 12/1, and has shown his best in testing conditions. Should the ground come up heavy then he could be the one Gweedore has most to fear.
3:00 Scottish Cup Handicap
This race has cut up badly with just 8 scheduled to go to post for what is normally a very competitive handicap.
Last year’s winner Silky Wilkie heads the market around 2/1. While he is one of the more likely winners, that’s far too short for me.
The best treated horse in the race is GLORIOUS ANGEL and while the 8/1 and 7/1 of the initial show is long gone, at a current 9/2 there is still a little value. I have her as the most likely winner and a bet at north of 3/1.
Her best past efforts have come on heavy ground, conditions she is likely to encounter on Saturday. She comes into the race on the back of a run at Doncaster on the opening day of the season so you can expect her to be pretty straight.
The Donny race was in the race won by Montassib. While she ran okay, she’ll need to step forward a little on that form but, in lesser company here and with the step back to 5 furlongs from last Saturday’s 6 furlongs a big positive she looks set to be bang involved.
3:35 Queen’s Cup
Staying races and races run around bends I treat with caution. It’s about pace, bends slow horses and unlike ‘point and go’ sprints…in staying races jockeys often misjudge the pace, all of which leads to a bit of a lottery.
There’s a few in the line up who in the past have gone from the front. Here’s hoping we get a tank emptying gallop to bring the best to the fore rather than an unsatisfactory test.
So, proceeding with caution…
The 3 that appear on the best marks are Struth, Ravenscraig Castle and Faylaq.
Struth I have a bit of a question mark on the going. He possibly wants better ground and at the current 6/1 (that’s probably about right) I’ll pass him over.
FAYLAQ, similar sentiment…while he has form with a bit of give he may not be at his best on very soft ground. He is on a very nice mark here and one he can win off. He’ll be pretty straight after a recent run at Newcastle and at 25/1, even with the ground concerns worth a small spin.
RAVENSCRAIG CASTLE, while not as well handicapped as Faylaq, the heavy ground will hold no fears. He ran in the same Newcastle race as Faylaq so should be ready to go.
25/1 available, which looks a bit of value, I make him around a 12/1 chance, so along with Faylaq he looks worth a play.
