Opening Day Of The 2024 Flat Season: Doncaster Thoughts And Betting Tips
A ‘headshaker’ how Montassib has been priced up as 4th best in the initial show. Plenty of 5/1 available, I’d be happy to back at 2/1 & possibly a little shorter.
1:20 Doncaster Mile – Charyn for the win?
It may be the opening race of the 2024 season and you may be harbouring some thoughts of treading cautiously but, I think there’s a good bet to be made here.
Nothing complicated – Charyn is the best horse contesting this race, his third-placed finish at Ascot behind Paddington is the stand out piece of form and quite a way in advance of anything achieved by any of the other contenders. Astral Beau I have as second best, but it is second best. If Charyn shows up at Doncaster and reproduces his Ascot form then he wins this.
Charyn has shown effectiveness on heavy or soft ground. A thorough test of pace over the straight mile should see the best horse come to the fore.
As of Thursday evening, Charyn is second favourite available at a top priced 3/1. That’s the wrong price, he should be at the head of the market and I make him a 6/4 chance here.
I suspect come 1:20 Saturday that price will be long gone.
2:25 Spring Mile – Maysong and Look Back Smiling
Big field straight mile handicaps are a good betting medium. While never guaranteed, there should be a solid pace here which will bring the best handicapped horses to the fore.
Top of the list:
Maysong is on a mark he can definitely win from.
He’s had a couple of spins on the all-weather, as he did before running third in this race last year. He’ll need to improve on the levels of the recent all-weather performances but interestingly he has run to a similar level as he did last year before stepping up once back on the heavy Doncaster turf.
He looks primed for a big run and at 16/1 is overpriced (20+ on the Exchanges). I have him near the front of the market around the 8/1 point.
Look Back Smiling has a little ground to make up on a ‘peak Maysong’ but his upward trajectory at the end of last season promised better to come.
A comfortable winner on desperate ground here on his final start of 2023. That was a personal best in a decent time. The ground will hold no fears for him.
Worth noting that Gemma Tutty has her horses in good form and that the promising Brandon Wilkie retains the ride claiming a valuable 5 lbs.
Of the others, Hortzadar is worth a mention. He’s got his optimum conditions and a winnable mark but I’ve been there that many times with him before…I’m not sure I want to again (even if he is trading 40+ on Betfair).
3:00 Cammidge Trophy – Montassib looks strong
A strong angle with Montassib in the Cammidge Trophy
Much like the opening race, there’s an error in the initial pricing and I’d be bold enough to say ‘a bigger error!’
Play the angle – The gap between performances in top handicaps and Listed/Group races is not as big as the market often portrays.
Case in point here. Montassib clocked a time when winning on his final start last season at York that is good enough to see him competitive in Group races. Saturday’s race is a Listed contest and he looks to have a very strong chance of winning.
Montassib’s edge – Campaigned primarily over 7 furlongs and a mile (to a decent level), for his final two starts Montassib was dropped back to 6 furlongs, this could be the making of him.
His fifth in the Ayr Gold Cup was a solid effort but it was his comfortable York win on soft ground that points to his chance here. If you watch the York race back you could expect more to come…a comfortable win.
It’s a rick…
A ‘headshaker’ how Montassib has been priced up as 4th best in the initial show. Plenty of 5/1 available, I’d be happy to back at 2/1 & possibly a little shorter.
Needless to say, as with all horses on seasonal debut, we are relying on them showing up at a level of fitness to be able to perform to their best. Over to you Mr Haggas but…
Whatever happens Saturday, zoom out, it doesn’t really matter. If you’re getting 5/1 about genuine 2/1 chances it’s just a case of volume…it’s a long season, identify value and ‘reload n repeat’.
3:35 Lincoln Handicap – Alternatives to the favourite.
Awaal is the most likely winner, but priced accordingly. At around 5/1 there’s no juice left in the price.It wouldn’t surprise me if he won but I’m happy to pass him over at that price for others with similar credentials at bigger prices.
Four to focus on…
JOHAN
THE GATEKEEPER
DUTCH DECOY
VETIVER
I’d rather play a few straight wins rather than each way in races like this but always with the proviso that you are getting a better price than chance.
Johan – unlike the majority of horses on show Saturday, unless they’ve recently been on the all-weather, then you’re taking a chance with fitness. No guarantees ‘that because he has before, that he will again‘ BUT…
Johan has performed to his best off the back of a break. In this race 2 years ago and the Golden Mile at Goodwood last season (a key race to solving the Lincoln puzzle).
Silvestre De Souza who won this race with him in 2022 is back on board. He’ll have him prominent and in a good position to ensure there’s a solid pace, enough to empty the tanks of the lesser ability horses. He should be bang in contention at the finish.
The price has collapsed a bit in the past week but there’s still bits of 12/1 knocking about. I’d have him with a very similar chance to Awaal so anything north of 7/1 and there’d be a little value.
The Gatekeeper ran second to Johan in the Golden Mile and improved further when winning the Balmoral on his final outing. Having grabbed a bit of 80’s the night before the Ascot victory, I have a bit of a soft spot for The Gatekeeper but, it’s not heart over head here. That run points to his chance in the Lincoln. A straight mile, on soft ground with a solid pace and he’s going to go close.
Like Johan, the price has evaporated in the past week. Bits of 12/1 still about, I rate him slightly shorter so of a little interest.
Vetiver ran 5th in the Balmoral behind The Gatekeeper. Like Montassib earlier, that is top class handicap form where the main protagonists are likely capable of bridging the gap to Listed class and beyond.
Vetiver held a 5 day entry in the opening Doncaster Mile but comes here instead. I was really hoping he’d take up the Listed race option (16/1 ante-post was nuts) , he’d have been a serious contender against Charyn but he comes here instead.
That said, off his current mark he is still weighted to win in handicaps. Whether that’s this Saturday, we’re about to find out?
I suspect Vetiver is a pattern class horse in the making, and under the care of Andrew Balding with just 7 races to date those days will probably come. Saturday, he’s of interest, I make him a 14/1 chance,with his price nearing 25’s as Betfair starts to fill up.
Dutch Decoy– another from the Golden Mile where he finished on the heels of Johan and The Gatekeeper. That race points to him being overpriced in the Lincoln, a straight mile on soft ground will be fine for him and on the numbers I have him as a similar horse to Vetiver.
At prices north of 30/1 and building on the Exchanges, that makes Dutch Decoy a bet.