Look For The Unexpected: Clockwatchers.
Why look beyond the high-profile races?
Occasionally, there are races that stand out on the clock.
I’m not talking about the high-profile races, the Group races, the fashionable hyped up horses from the big stables. No, it is the less obvious races, the ones that surprise you when the numbers are run, and you think…
Not everyone has seen this.Â
That’s where I’m looking. Conterintuative to then write about it and expose those horses that are potentially under estimated? Don’t worry, no one reads this so let us have a little fun.
A closer look at the British EBF 40th Anniversary Maiden Stakes
The race that stood out
One such race that made me stop and dig a bit deeper, the British EBF 40th Anniversary Maiden Stakes run at Doncaster on the 16th September A field made up of debutants or very lightly raced types therefore hard to put a handle on the worth of the form other than the clock?
Analyzing the Doncaster Maiden performance
The figure is above what I’d expect for an Doncaster maiden, there are likely some decent performers within the field and, what I like…no great hype. This is a better race than the general betting population think it is atm, if I’m right, over the next few weeks as some of the runners have there subsequent runs, that will change. The opportunity lies before that shift happens.
As I’m writing this, none of the horses from the Doncaster race have subsequently run. That changes today, Bellum Justum lays down the first marker in the first at Newmarket.Â
Bellum Justum: An underrated contender
Evaluating market odds on Bellum Justum
17 runners contend and plenty of very well-bred likely types from the big yards. At the price, trading just over the 20’s mark on Betfair last night, that’s too big here, I’m happy to get involved. In my view Bellum Justum has been under estimated in the market and there’s no reason not to expect some more upside on what he’s achieved on the track so far.
Other promising runners to watch
Deira Mile’s potential path
Potentially, if the race has been underestimated then all of the other runners merit some consideration in their near future runs.
Deira Mile I backed at Donny. Initial reaction post race was disappointment. I’ve revised that after the post race dive.Â
He held an entry, coming out at the 48 hour stage, in the Royal Lodge. A signal of intent and potential from the trainer? Instead opting for a 4-runner novice event at Chelmsford on the same day. That races looks a formality and Deira Mile will be of more interest if he hits the handicap route. He’s probably going to turn out better than a handicapper but may get alloted a decent mark. Out of Camelot, he’s likely to want 10 furlongs plus to be at his best. One for the radar.
Redhot Whisper’s Under-the-radar potential
Redhot Whisper, 2nd at Doncaster and just that he is trained by the not particularly well-known Ben Brookhouse means he could be underbet. A Futurity entry is a positive marker, an average maiden race a formality.
God’s Window: A Futurity prospect
Another Futurity entry, God’s Window, appeals as the one in the field who could turn out to be the best. Winners are always of added interest and he’s in the hands of the Gosden’s so you can expect plenty of progression on the back of that first run. The Futurity is a big step up but, I’d be interested at this stage.
At Vimeiro: An eyecatcher with stamina
At Vimeiro was a Racing Post commentary ‘eyecatcher’. Oh oh, watch out, here come the over bettors!! He’s declared for the Royal Lodge and will be a decent price. Not sure he’ll be good enough to win a Royal Lodge but I’d think he’ll outrun his odds.Â
He’ll be of more interest as he steps up in distance. Load of stamina in his pedigree and he’s going to be a 12-furlong horse in time.
Otto Flash: A strong Haydock prospect
Otto Flash is due to run at Haydock on Saturday. A 6-runner maiden so I’d doubt any fancy prices but it looks a race he could win.
Further down the Doncaster finishing order there’s horses that are likely to be of interest once they hit the handicap trail. I’ll be keeping an eye on engagements and hoping their ability is underestimated by the handicapper and bettors.
