Epatante Champion Hurdle
I like Goshen, but he’s the wrong price to win the Champion Hurdle.
A current 4/1 chance, Goshen takes up 20% of the market. It’s not Goshen’s fault but, he is one of those hyped horses. We love a good story, the comeback kid, a feelgood factor, redemption awaits for his unfortunate last flight fall with the 2020 Triumph Hurdle?
Heart over head isn’t a good mix when it comes to betting.
Any half-competent form student will know he has to improve significantly to take this. He could, but that’s not a 4/1 chance to happen. 12/1 and I wouldn’t be a backer.
The relevance of this? Goshen as a 4/1 chance takes up 20% of the book. If you are betting into a near 100% book, then if Goshen really is a 12/1 shot, you are onto a winner.
Laying Goshen is an option.
Backing others is an option.
Epatante 2020 Champion Hurdle
The best horse in this race on past racecourse performance is Epatante. That was winning the Champion Hurdle in 2020.
Epatante has recorded her best performances on soft ground, rain prior and a decent cut in the ground on Tuesday would be ideal.
The time merit of Epatante’s 2020 win was that of a champion. None in the 2021 field have run that fast over 2 miles, should Epatante repeat this effort then it gives her a good chance of success. Maybe a couple in here could find improvement and compete, Honeysuckle, Sharjah and Abacadabra the most likely. But, they haven’t thus far and if Epatante is in the same form as last year then she is the one to beat.
Defeat a Kempton on Boxing Day, at the hands of Silver Streak has undoubtedly enhanced the price available. Kempton over Christmas was not Epatantes seasonal aim, Tuesday is.
Trial races often present a very different test to the Cheltenham Festival races. Lack of pace and small fields can result in very different results. Given a proper test in the Champion Hurdle, expect to see Epatante do her best.
Sharjah overpriced @ 16/1
The same can be said for Sharjah. Second here in 2020, he needs to reverse recent form with a couple of these to be involved. Granted a proper test, he looks solid each-way at 16/1 to repeat his 2020 effort.
Will Epatante turn up on Tuesday in the same form as last year? We need to put our trust in Nicky Henderson here.
Can something improve past Epatante? Yes, anything could happen. 4/1 seems like a fair price for Epatante winning.
Could something totally out of the blue happen? Yes, we are all guessing.