Cheltenham Festival Day 4 Prospects

JCB Triumph Hurdle

I’d believed that Allmankind had the look of one of the stronger bets of the week, that was until the Paul Nicholls Solo burst onto the scene a couple of weeks ago at Kempton.

I have the pair on the same marks and are hard to separate. I do think the pair have produced performances a fair way in advance of anything else in the field and that one of them is the most likely winner.

At the current best odds 7/2 Solo and 4/1 Allmankind, I’m finding it difficult to choose a play. Allmankind has more experience which could play a part, but then it’s rare for a horse to post such a big number as Solo did on their British debut!!

Solo won very tidily at Kempton too and you could see him being a good bit better than that. I guess I’m leaning towards Solo at the moment but there’ll be more clues from the Boodle Hurdle on Wednesday so I’m going to keep an open mind at present.

Cheltenham Day 4 Prospects - Solo winning at Kempton

How good is Solo? 🤔

That will be a question for @CobdenHarry when he is a guest on #LuckOnSunday tomorrow. @Harry_Whitt plus David Minton and @RichardHoiles will also feature.

As always, the show will be free to view from 9am. Join us then! pic.twitter.com/7kGi1X2Q0v
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) March 7, 2020

Bets

Solo 7/2

Short Listed

Allmankind

“Chase” flickr photo by charlesdyer https://flickr.com/photos/charliedees/4529327892 shared under a Creative Commons (BY) license

Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle

Normally an absolute minefield of a betting race but I do think that there are a couple of horses that have worked themselves on to very winnable handicap marks.

I’m pretty keen on the chance of Aramon here.

A reproduction of his Aintree second to Felix Desjy would give him a strong chance of victory here. He has gone missing a bit since then in his racecourse efforts but I suspect that has been by design. No surprise if he bounces back to form and takes this – 9/1 is nothing to get too excited about but he’s on such a good mark I could see him going off a bit shorter.

The other one and it requires a bit more of a leap of faith is Mohaayed. His trainer Dan Skelton has an excellent record in this race and that should be noted.

You have to go back some time, Ascot December 2018 for the piece of form that makes him look well handicapped. I prefer Aramon’s credentials, but am very wary of a Mohaayed resurgence here. 10/1 best price if you want to play.

Bets

Aramon 9/1

Short Listed

Mohaayed

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

Plenty of Irish horses of interest here, the best of the English looks like Thyme Hill but at a best-priced 9/2, I’m not getting too excited in the face of the challenge from Ireland.

On the evidence of the first two days of the Festival, Shishkin aside, you would say the Irish novices as a generation are better than the English novices. I think we could see one of the Irish trained horses step forward here and take this, which one I’d have no strong opinion on.

Redford Road looks one of the better English prospects in this. At the start of the week when I started writing this he was available at 33/1, I’d have been tempted at that price but he’s now a 16/1 shot which would seem about the right price on what he has done so far.

A race I’ll probably sit out on.

Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase

The best form on offer is Clan Des Obeaux. It’s been well documented that his best runs to date have come at Kempton.

I think there’s every chance he could prove as good around Cheltenham but the best odds of 8/1 are not exactly screaming out for me to pay to find out.

Quite happy to sit back and enjoy the big one without any financial involvement.

St Jame's Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup

I have no interest in Hunter Chases but bizarrely have managed to back a couple of 25/1 winners in this race over the years.

I read a Hunter Chase experts 4,000-word blog on the race the other day. The conclusion was…..well there wasn’t one! If someone who intensely follows the Hunter Chase scene couldn’t pin one down then I have no chance.

Move on…..

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase

If you are still standing at this point you’ve done well. If you’re behind then the last two races of the meeting aren’t the easiest getting out races.

Us And Them, second in last years Arkle is in a decent mark but he needs to bounce right back having shown little all season. Worth a watch for a move in the market.

Other than that, little of interest as a betting event for me.

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

Gordon Elliott, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls have a decent record in this race. They have multiple entries in this year’s race and it’s difficult to work out which are their best chances.

Away from these three trainers, two horses take the eye at decent prices.

Firstly Umbrigado, trained by David Pipe you would think the stable would be keen to win the race named after the trainer’s father. That aside, he’s racing from a winnable handicap mark.

A decent novice last season, Umbrigado’s 5th at Haydock two runs back behind Stoney Mountain takes the eye. Running of 142 at Haydock, he’s off 140 here, the Haydock race was a decent contest and at 20/1 he’s of interest here.

The one that really takes my eye is the Kim Bailey trained Happygolucky at 33/1.

His third behind Thyme Hill at Cheltenham back in November puts him on a decent mark here. The form of that Cheltenham race is well known and has been tested since but, should Thyme Hill put up a decent effort in the Albert Bartlett earlier in the day then I could see the price on Happygolucky come crashing in.

Cheltenham Day 4 Prospects - Happygolucky finishing 3rd behind Thyme Hill

A future Festival star?

Thyme Hill is a strong winner of the @Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle#TheNovemberMeeting pic.twitter.com/AWA9L1IJpB
— CheltenhamRacecourse (@CheltenhamRaces) November 16, 2019

It’s worth noting that Champagne Well who ran in the Coral Cup on Wednesday was in the process of running a decent race until making a horrible mistake two out which ended his chances. Champagne Well separated Thyme Hill and Happygolucky in November.

I’ve little doubt Happygolucky is racing off a handicap mark he is capable of winning from, hopefully in the Martin Pipe.

I make Happygolucky a solid bet here at 33/1.