Cheltenham Preview
12th December 2020
Elham Valley to improve on Sandown win
12:05 Adagio has posted the best past racecourse performance and appeals as the most likely winner. He is priced accordingly and it’s difficult to see any value in the current price at 2.30.
Victorious at Sandown last Saturday, Elham Valley is second-best on racecourse efforts. As with all winners, it is hard to put a top end on his ability. Needs to be better than Sandown to bridge the gap with Adagio. That is possible, an Exchange price of 6.4 underestimates his chance.
Nietzsche @ 14.5 offers value
1:15 Nietzsche and Born Survivor at Exchange odds of 14.5 and 25.0 both appeal as overpriced. The merit of Nietzsche’s 3rd at Wetherby 2 runs ago gives him a better chance than his current odds. Born Survivor has recorded his best efforts over further than Saturday’s test. Even after factoring this into his chance, Born Survivor has been underestimated by the market on Saturday. His best form is good enough to be involved here.
Good Boy Bobby & Huntsman Son
13:50 Competitive and a case can be made for several.
Good Boy Bobby’s 2nd in the novice chase at last year’s meetings makes him the most likely winner here. At 16.0 he looks considerably overpriced.
Huntsman Son posted a much-improved effort to win at Wetherby on his first run for 538 days. He needs to better that effort to win but, the manner of his Wetherby win suggests he could be better than he has shown yet. He appeals at 40/1.
To a lesser extent, Southfield Stone looks underestimated by the market at 30.0.
I respect the chances of Al’s Dancer, Cepage and Midnight Shadow but the market looks to have found their price.
2:25 This looks to be between Ashtown Lad and Danny Kirwan. At 4.0 and 6.0 respectively I believe there’s some value in both prices. Preference is for Ashtown Lad, the Uttoxeter race he won last time looks strong and he recorded a time figure which if replicated here makes him the most likely winner. I have him near a 3,0 chance
Goshen - Back Or Lay?
3:00 The eagerly anticipated return of Goshen. I want to be against him here, currently trading 2.92, that seriously overestimates his chance and makes this an interesting betting race.
Given Goshen’s position in the market, it means there’s potential value in several runners. Silver Streak, Chitabello, Ballyandy and Verdana Blue all appeal at current prices but I’ve sided with Call Me Lord at 36.0 (a little shorter now).
Call Me Lord’s chance seems to have been overlooked, his price is quite an insult of his ability. On his Ascot 2nd just over a year ago, Call Me Lord is entitled to be involved in the finish here.
3:35 The lightly raced improving Miah Grace looks value at 5.5. I have her the most likely winner, so it would be of no surprise to see here well backed on Saturday into favouritism.
Away from Cheltenham, the Juvenile Hurdle at Doncaster looks an interesting betting contest. Monmiral makes the market at odds around 1.65. The chance of Gold Desert looks seriously underestimated at the current 15.0.
