Profiling racehorse performance
One of the traditional and most widely used methods of assessing the chances of a runner in a horse race is form analysis. More specifically, using the past performances of a horse to try and predict the outcome of a future event.
One of the main flaws with this approach is that everyone is doing the same. Well not everyone, but a good proportion and by its nature all the information available is expressed in the odds available to bet. I’m not saying you can’t win using this approach, there are opportunities and those using more sophisticated versions will find angles and make money.
In this post, I want to examine horse profiles and how using these profiles alone can produce profitable betting opportunities. The profiling is linked to past performance as I’ll be using this to bracket horses into one of three categories.
Benefits of profiling racehorse Performance
The principle behind this approach is simple. It’s not as widely used as other methods for assessing a future horse race and can give you an edge over the market. The upside with improvers is the unknown, the market can’t know how much a horse could further improve and it is very difficult to factor into a betting market.
When horses improve, it can be sudden and drastic. Improvement doesn’t often come in a linear format and having these horses on your side at the right price can be potent.
Improvement can come about through many factors. Not a full list by any means but maturing mentally and physically, a change of trainer, a change in the trip or going, the application of a piece of apparatus – tongue-tie, blinkers, cheek pieces, improvement post gelding or wind operation and the list goes on.
The criteria for the racehorse profiles
The most important segment here and the horses to focus on are those in the ‘Progressive’ group.
Horses tend to show improved form when they are younger as they develop mentally and physically and when they are lightly raced and physicality plus fitness and experience takes effect. With this in mind, certain races will naturally have a large number of potential improvers competing.
On the flat, in maidens and nurseries contested by 2-year-old horses, you will find many horses with progressive profiles. Similar will apply over jumps where novices are starting out over either hurdles and chases. You get a lot of qualifiers in these races, it doesn’t mean you don’t identify good bets but it’s harder as multiple younger and inexperienced horses can post big improvements in their form.
For the purpose of this post, I’m going to focus on handicaps which by nature are contested by horses that have had more runs and more experience. You’ll find fewer qualifiers in the progressive category in these races, but finding an improver in a race full of ‘plateaued’ and ‘regressive’ horses can be significant.
How do I use this information?
The idea is to think about a different approach to assessing a horses chance away from the more standard ‘form analysis’.
Used in isolation, the profile gives a direction of a horse’s past performance, that trend could well not continue. It does not take into account the relative merit of the horse’s ability versus his upcoming competitors.
I’m not recommending blindly backing all improvers but to use it as a tool in your assessment of chance versus the odds available. Added into your assessment of a race, the unknown upside of a progressive horse can highlight previously unforeseen value.
Racing on new years day
To get started I’ve profiled the runners from three of the handicaps from the meetings at Cheltenham and Musselburgh on New Years Day.
It has highlighted many ‘plateaued’ horses and only a handful of horses in the ‘regressive’ group (as you’d expect for 3 decent profile races on a televised day).
Each race has at least two improvers to consider.
2:00 Cheltenham - Paddy Power Handicap Chase
- Magic Saint
- Oldgrangewood
- Kalashnikov
- Saint Calvados
- Cepage
- Mister Whitaker
- Outlander
- Ok Corral
- Lalor
- Poker Play
- Ballyhill
2:35 Cheltenham - Paddy Power 69 Sleeps To Cheltenham Handicap Hurdle
- Beware The Bear
- The Jam Man
- Rapper
- Anytime Will Do
- Goodbye Dancer
- Kilbricken Storm
- Whos My Jockey
- Ask Dillon
- Skandiburg
- Mason Jar
- Constantine Bay
- Might Bite
- Shantou Village
- Taj Badalandabad
2:15 Musselburgh - Betway Hogmaneigh Handicap Hurdle
- Project Bluebook
- Newtown Boy
- Ashington
- Snookered
- L’Inganno Felice
- Sir Chauvelin
- Normal Norman
- Peter The Mayo Man
- Fisher Green
- Never Be Enough
- Aristo Du Plessis
Saturday 4th January 2020
Four handicaps from the meetings at Sandown and Wincanton.
1:20 Sandown - Read Nicky Henderson's Unibet Blog Handicap Chase
- WAIKIKI WAVES
- DASHING PERK
- VINNIE THE HODDIE
- MERCY MERCY ME
- MYSTICAL CLOUDS
- CLONDAW WESTIE
- CAP DU NORD
- VOLT FACE
1:50 Sandown - new Unibet uniboost Handicap Chase
- locker room talk
- Delire D’estruval
- Johnbb
- American Tom
- Finnegan’s Garden
- Darebin
3:35 Sandown - Read Nico De Boinville's Unibet Blog Handicap Hurdle
- Blu Cavalier
- Totterdown
- Smarty Wild
- Distingo
- Gunnery
- Eldorado Allen
- Remiluc
- Ainchea
- Mill Green
- John Constable
- Ruacana
2:40 Wincanton - Boylesports this is betting handicap hurdle
- Rootless Tree
- Maypole Class
- Nifty at Fifty
- Finula
- Sir Ivan
- Silver Kayf
- Vodka All The Way
- Horse Force One
- Alcock and Brown
- Invincible Cave
- Merry Milan
