Unibet Tolworth Hurdle Sandown
The quality of racing becomes a bit thin on the ground post the Christmas and New Year spectacles. Nonetheless, Sandown Park stages a decent card on Saturday headed by the feature Unibet Tolworth Hurdle, a grade 1 contest for novice hurdlers over 2 miles.
In the past four years, Yorkhill and Summerville Boy have used the race as a stepping stone to Cheltenham Festival glory. This year’s renewal sees some equally promising types engaged.
Pricing up races filled with up and coming types is always fraught with risk and open to differing opinions. No one knows the potential upside of improving young horses who’ve won on their latest outing. Taking a view in such races can unearth value.
My tissue prices for the race vary somewhat from the current best odds available. As always, I price my tissue to 100% and attempt to highlight some value.
“On the run-in” flickr photo by Carine06 https://flickr.com/photos/43555660@N00/46801753305 shared under a Creative Commons (BY-SA) license
Unibet Tolworth Hurdle Tissue Prices
| TISSUE PRICE | % CHANCE | CURRENT BEST PRICE | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FIDDLERONTHEROOF | 15/8 | 34.8% | 9/4 |
| SON OF CAMAS | 3/1 | 25% | 5/2 |
| HANG IN THERE | 10/1 | 9.1% | 3/1 |
| SILVER HALLMARK | 22/1 | 4.3% | 13/2 |
| JEREMYS FLAME | 9/1 | 10% | 8/1 |
| CALVA D’AUGE | 11/2 | 15.4% | 12/1 |
| LOGAN ROCKS | 66/1 | 1.5% | 50/1 |
| BALLYCLOVEN BEAT | 500/1 | 0.2% | 250/1 |
| Total Book | 100.3% | 100.3% | 112.6% |
The first point to make is the tissue prices and current best odds are pre the 24-hour declaration stage. Some of the horses listed could become non-participants, if that’s the case, you can adjust the issue odds proportionally and compare to the live best odds.
Where does the value lie in the Tolworth Hurdle?
I have quite a difference in opinion on several runners in the race and that is reflected in the tissue versus available best odds. Fundamentally this is how you identify value, your opinion won’t always be right, neither will the market but tissue comparatives will steer you in the direction of value and away from accepting poor value bets.
Fiddlerontheroof, I have as favourite as does the market. While I slightly favour his chance there is limited value in the price. He is sure to prove popular on the back of a visually impressive win last time out at Sandown but, I’d argue that form in a relatively week heat wasn’t in advance of what he had already achieved. A drift from 9/4 would be interesting, but I don’t particularly see that happening. I expect him to prove popular with the Saturday betting public and remain strong in the market.
Son Of Camas I have as 3/1 in my tissue prices against a current best price of 5/2. So, while I respect his chance, I’m happy to look elsewhere at the current odds for some value.
The biggest negative expectation I have against the current odds, and what makes the market interesting is my interpretation of the chances of Hang In There and Silver Hallmark. Against my tissue prices the market has massively overestimated their chances?
The key benefactor is Calva D’Auge who I have priced at 11/2 versus the market opinion of 12/1. In my view, his 2nd to Thebannerkingrebel at Haydock last time out has been underestimated. Obviously, he needs to be declared but at 12/1, and should all 8 stand their ground then there is value in both the win and place bets.
